Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe

Abstract. Extratropical cyclones play a major role in the atmospheric circulation and weather variability can cause widespread damage destruction. northern Europe, which is located at end of North Atlantic storm track, have been less studied than extratropical elsewhere. Our study investigates windstorms Europe (which this covers Norway; Sweden; Finland; Estonia; parts Baltic, Norwegian, Barents seas) by analysing their characteristics, spatial temporal evolution, precursors. We examine cold warm seasons separately to determine seasonal differences. track all create cyclone composites, use an ensemble sensitivity method analyse The analysis novel studies where linear regression used statistically identify what variables possibly influence subsequent evolution cyclones. investigate windstorm precursors for both minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP) maximum 10 m wind gusts. annual number has large inter-annual no significant trends during 1980–2019. Windstorms originate occur over Norwegian seas, whereas weaker land areas Europe. During gusts move from sector behind front following strongest gradient. are on poleward side jet stream. nearly same time as MSLP occurs. cold-season higher sensitivities thus potentially better predictable warm-season windstorms, Of four examined precursors, most sensitive 850 hPa potential temperature anomaly, i.e. Hence, parameter likely important when predicting